Possible Swine Flu Mutations

Norway and Britain may have some troubling news regarding the Swine Flu.

A National Emergency of the Swine flu may be improving, at least for now.

Obviously, the Swine flu is far from over. A peak may be seen in America and in Western Europe. The wave of infections seems to be increasing in Eastern Europe and Asia.

Over 6,700 deaths worldwide have been recorded as a direct result of the Swine Flu.

Though, it has been argued, cases may increase in January and several peaks could be seen in the typical single flu season whether human flu or H1N1.

There are “early signs of a peak in disease activity in some areas of the northern hemisphere,” the WHO said in a statement.

Drug-Resistant Swine Flu

The real concern or next phase of concern may be moving to a possible drug resistance by the swine flu virus in certain countries.  The spread of this strain may be occurring in Great Britain.

Importantly, this does not mean a resistance to the vaccine!!

5 individuals in Wales were found to be resistant to the antiviral drug “Tami-flu” from companies Roche AG and Gilead Sciences Inc

These patients did have success with a different antiviral from other companies GlaxoSmithKline and Biota Inc’s “Relenza”.

Each of these patients also had serious immune problems that may have given the strain an opportunity to develop resistance.

Another outbreak is being investigated in Norway where a strain of H1N1 may have mutated causing symptoms that were worse than expected and rather severe.

Recently the Norwegian Institute of Public Health reported that the virus may be able to go deeper into the respiratory system as a result, the symptoms were more serious.

The virus mutation was found on autopsy of two individuals that had died from the Swine flu.

Norway has seen a larger number of deaths per population when compared to other European countries.

Swine Flu Available Vaccines

World production continues to move forward when it comes to the  H1N1 vaccinations.   But truthfully, the world population and the number of vaccines available is quite large.  It is unlikely that a bridge will be able to connect the two sides any time soon.

The United States and several other countries are far behind where they would like to be.  Some countries report a shortage in the vaccine production.   Currently 44 million doses have been shipped so far.    This is only 30% of the anticipated amount.

Plateau

Several countries including the Untied States and Western Europe have experienced a decrease in number of new cases of the Swine flu within the past few weeks.

The question is whether this is a shift or a plateau.  Eastern European countries and Asia have seen an increase in cases.

The next few weeks will be telling for the projection of Swine Flu cases in the New year.

Pandemic WHO – Updated with new related deaths

 

As of June 11th 2009

The World Health Organization (WHO) officially declared a 2009 swine flu pandemic. This is the first such update in over 40 years – The severity of the virus world wide is rather moderate but the reason for the classification to pandemic is related to how quickly the virus has spread and will spread.

What to expect from here?

World wide awareness will continue to rise and the number of cases may double in the next few months. Some countries may devote an increased amount of funds to prepare and protect against the Swine flu.

Travel bans are unlikely and the hope is that fear does not cause rash panic.

Some countries have seen a deluge of individuals flooding emergency rooms and health clinics. Many countries will prepare for a potential second wave.

Check out http://www.cdc.gov/H1N1FLU/

Update: June 17th 2009

Utah has had an increase in the number of deaths related to Swine Flu – and recently reported in the Salt Lake Tribune that the death toll has reached 8. http://www.sltrib.com/news/ci_12607907

New York continues to have a high number of deaths and is currently reporting 23 deaths which is the highest in the nation. http://www.newsday.com/news/printedition/longisland/ny-nyswin1712885390jun16,0,179533.story

Other states with deaths include: Arizona, California, Connecticut, Illinois, Michigan, Missouri, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virgina, Washington, and Wisconsin.

Sanofi Aventis indicated and promised that they would donate more than 100 million doses of the vaccine to help fight against the Swine Flu. It will take time to get the vaccine synthesized, but the it is anticipated to be used to help protect against the H1N1 swine flu.

“”Exceptional times require exceptional responses. We need to act responsibly and we all have to play our part,” spoke CEO Christopher Viehbacher in a statement that was released by the Pacific Health Summit in Seattle.

Currently there is no recommendation for vaccination at this time. It is unknown the possible advantage or rather disadvantage that this specific virus will cause for pharmaceutical companies. Since this is a new virus it is speculation regarding the ease of making a new vaccine. It is anticipated that several companies will begin working on the vaccine within the next few weeks to months.

Other companies that make flu vaccine include Novartis AG, Baxter International Inc, GlaxoSmithKline and Solvay.

For more details:

http://www.newsday.com/news/printedition/longisland/ny-nyswin1712885390jun16,0,179533.story

http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-SwineFlu/idUSTRE55G51X20090617

Pandemic WHO

 

While the U.N. Health Officials met in Geneva on Thursday to discuss the H1N1 virus the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declared a 2009 Swine flu pandemic. This is the first such update in over 40 years – 41 years to be exact. The severity of the virus world wide is rather moderate but the reason for the classification to pandemic is related to how quickly the virus has spread.

The Swine Flu was first diagnosed in Mexico in late April. It soon spread to neighboring countries and is now found in more then 70 countries and has affected more than 30,000 people. The decision to update the classification does not appear to have been difficult and many feel that the U.S health officials have been acting as if a pandemic level has been around for weeks.

Fear continues to be a driving factor. Although the virus appears to be mild, there is much speculation and fear that the virus will become much more dangerous and a mutation, although unlikely, is still plauseable. A second fear is that the current state of of this virus attack is only in round 1 and a second wave may be possible in mid summer or possibly as late as August.

WHO chief Dr. Margaret Chan said “The World is moving into the early days of its first influenza pandemic in the 21st century“.

A total of 140 people have died as a direct result of the Swine flu. The seasonal flu may result 36,000 deaths in the United States and around 250,000 world wide. Recently Australia and Chile noted a large increase in symptomatic individuals. The Swine flu has spread rapidly across Europe and Japan.

A Current Gamble

A current recommendation to initiate a vaccine for the swine flu will now be taken to pharmaceutical companies. The decision to make a vaccine for swine flu may be at the expense of the regular seasonal flu. One company is typically unable to make both vaccines and therefore a gambling choice will be made.

Level 6

This is the level that caused the pandemic status to be initiated. Pandemic is classified as an epidemic of sufficient level and has become global. The last pandemic was seen in 1968 in Hong Kong.

What to expect from here?

World wide awareness will continue to rise and the number of cases may double in the next few months. Some countries may devote an increased amount of funds to prepare and protect against the Swine flu.

Travel bans are unlikely and the hope is that fear does not cause rash panic.

Some countries have seen a deluge of individuals flooding emergency rooms and health clinics. Many countries will prepare for a potential second wave.

Check out http://www.cdc.gov/H1N1FLU/

Update: June 17th 2009

Utah has had an increase in the number of deaths related to Swine Flu – and recently seen in the Salt Lake Tribune that an overall 8 individuals have died as a result. http://www.sltrib.com/news/ci_12607907

New York continues to have a high number of deaths and are currently at 23 http://www.newsday.com/news/printedition/longisland/ny-nyswin1712885390jun16,0,179533.story

Other states with deaths include: Arizona, California, Connecticut, Illinois, Michigan, Missouri, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virgina, Washington, and Wisconsin.

Originally seen at iahealth issues