Possible Swine Flu Mutations

Norway and Britain may have some troubling news regarding the Swine Flu.

A National Emergency of the Swine flu may be improving, at least for now.

Obviously, the Swine flu is far from over. A peak may be seen in America and in Western Europe. The wave of infections seems to be increasing in Eastern Europe and Asia.

Over 6,700 deaths worldwide have been recorded as a direct result of the Swine Flu.

Though, it has been argued, cases may increase in January and several peaks could be seen in the typical single flu season whether human flu or H1N1.

There are “early signs of a peak in disease activity in some areas of the northern hemisphere,” the WHO said in a statement.

Drug-Resistant Swine Flu

The real concern or next phase of concern may be moving to a possible drug resistance by the swine flu virus in certain countries.  The spread of this strain may be occurring in Great Britain.

Importantly, this does not mean a resistance to the vaccine!!

5 individuals in Wales were found to be resistant to the antiviral drug “Tami-flu” from companies Roche AG and Gilead Sciences Inc

These patients did have success with a different antiviral from other companies GlaxoSmithKline and Biota Inc’s “Relenza”.

Each of these patients also had serious immune problems that may have given the strain an opportunity to develop resistance.

Another outbreak is being investigated in Norway where a strain of H1N1 may have mutated causing symptoms that were worse than expected and rather severe.

Recently the Norwegian Institute of Public Health reported that the virus may be able to go deeper into the respiratory system as a result, the symptoms were more serious.

The virus mutation was found on autopsy of two individuals that had died from the Swine flu.

Norway has seen a larger number of deaths per population when compared to other European countries.

Swine Flu Available Vaccines

World production continues to move forward when it comes to the  H1N1 vaccinations.   But truthfully, the world population and the number of vaccines available is quite large.  It is unlikely that a bridge will be able to connect the two sides any time soon.

The United States and several other countries are far behind where they would like to be.  Some countries report a shortage in the vaccine production.   Currently 44 million doses have been shipped so far.    This is only 30% of the anticipated amount.

Plateau

Several countries including the Untied States and Western Europe have experienced a decrease in number of new cases of the Swine flu within the past few weeks.

The question is whether this is a shift or a plateau.  Eastern European countries and Asia have seen an increase in cases.

The next few weeks will be telling for the projection of Swine Flu cases in the New year.

Swine Flu – Heating Up or Exploding??

The Swine Flu discussion is beginning to heat up again today in Beijing with the World Health Organization indicating that they fear an “explosion” of Swine flu cases in the next few months.

This rhetoric appears to be nothing new from the hundreds of stories regarding Swine flu over the past few weeks to months. The projected timeline includes a modest increase in Swine flu cases over the next few weeks, then a sharp increase – a doubling of cases each day for several weeks and then a peak of cases in the colder months later this year and into early next year.

The current belief is that the Swine flu influenza virus is a rather resistant virus. This is backed up by the fact that the seasonal flu influenza virus typically disappears during the warm months. The Swine flu has diminished in the Northern Hemisphere but is has not disappeared. A better understanding to the pandemic outcome because of this resistance will be seen in the upcoming months.

The symposium held today wanted to address the prognosis and the current situation of the H1N1 influenza or more commonly referred to as the Swine flu.

They reported that over 1,800 deaths can be attributed to the Swine flu and that it is currently classified as a pandemic.

In the United States currently 520+ deaths are Swine flu related/caused

They believe that up to 30% of the entire world population will be exposed or infected by the Swine flu over the next few years.

While others attest that the Swine flu may be no more serious than the annual flu season that is experienced year in and year out.

Worldwide – between 200,000 and 500,000 deaths are attributed every season to the seasonal flu.

The Pacific director of the Western branch of WHO is Shin Young-Soo and he indicated a concern for developing countries. Shin indicates “…it is in developing countries that the accelerated spread of swine flu poses the greatest threat as it places under-equipped and underfunded health systems under severe strain.”

Others believe the most challenging aspect will be the significant demand for vaccine and the high emergency room numbers in both the developed and undeveloped countries. It is believed that many will be overburdened due to fear and potential outbreak.

Swine Flu Vaccine

Many are concerned over the current projected release of the Swine flu vaccine. It is anticipated to begin between the months of September and December.

Most of the vaccine rations will be given to more economically sound countries.

There is a report of two drug makers that have pledge to donate 150 million doses of the vaccine to poorer countries by the later part of the year. It is unknown the price tag on the vaccines donated.

Vaccine Timeline

Currently it is believed that the Swine flu vaccine will be available at the end of the year – or sometime sooner.

Clinical trials Clinical trials began and the results should be known by mid to late September.

Some believe that 50 million doses will be available by late October and over 200 million doses ready by December. This projection is less than half of the original expectation and has taken some by surprise. Initially it was anticipated that some 120 million doses would be ready by October.

Currently no serious side effects have been seen in the initial batch of clinical trials

Initially Adults were tested and just within the last few days – children began testing as early as 6 months of age.

More controversially pregnant women will begin testing sometime next month.

Distribution of the vaccine will be closely discussed and monitored. Currently the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is creating a plan for distribution.

Adjuvants will also be tested more fully over the next few months.

Additional modifications to timeline and expectations will be seen over the next few weeks and months.

Pandemic WHO – Updated with new related deaths

 

As of June 11th 2009

The World Health Organization (WHO) officially declared a 2009 swine flu pandemic. This is the first such update in over 40 years – The severity of the virus world wide is rather moderate but the reason for the classification to pandemic is related to how quickly the virus has spread and will spread.

What to expect from here?

World wide awareness will continue to rise and the number of cases may double in the next few months. Some countries may devote an increased amount of funds to prepare and protect against the Swine flu.

Travel bans are unlikely and the hope is that fear does not cause rash panic.

Some countries have seen a deluge of individuals flooding emergency rooms and health clinics. Many countries will prepare for a potential second wave.

Check out http://www.cdc.gov/H1N1FLU/

Update: June 17th 2009

Utah has had an increase in the number of deaths related to Swine Flu – and recently reported in the Salt Lake Tribune that the death toll has reached 8. http://www.sltrib.com/news/ci_12607907

New York continues to have a high number of deaths and is currently reporting 23 deaths which is the highest in the nation. http://www.newsday.com/news/printedition/longisland/ny-nyswin1712885390jun16,0,179533.story

Other states with deaths include: Arizona, California, Connecticut, Illinois, Michigan, Missouri, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virgina, Washington, and Wisconsin.

Sanofi Aventis indicated and promised that they would donate more than 100 million doses of the vaccine to help fight against the Swine Flu. It will take time to get the vaccine synthesized, but the it is anticipated to be used to help protect against the H1N1 swine flu.

“”Exceptional times require exceptional responses. We need to act responsibly and we all have to play our part,” spoke CEO Christopher Viehbacher in a statement that was released by the Pacific Health Summit in Seattle.

Currently there is no recommendation for vaccination at this time. It is unknown the possible advantage or rather disadvantage that this specific virus will cause for pharmaceutical companies. Since this is a new virus it is speculation regarding the ease of making a new vaccine. It is anticipated that several companies will begin working on the vaccine within the next few weeks to months.

Other companies that make flu vaccine include Novartis AG, Baxter International Inc, GlaxoSmithKline and Solvay.

For more details:

http://www.newsday.com/news/printedition/longisland/ny-nyswin1712885390jun16,0,179533.story

http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-SwineFlu/idUSTRE55G51X20090617

Pandemic WHO

 

While the U.N. Health Officials met in Geneva on Thursday to discuss the H1N1 virus the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declared a 2009 Swine flu pandemic. This is the first such update in over 40 years – 41 years to be exact. The severity of the virus world wide is rather moderate but the reason for the classification to pandemic is related to how quickly the virus has spread.

The Swine Flu was first diagnosed in Mexico in late April. It soon spread to neighboring countries and is now found in more then 70 countries and has affected more than 30,000 people. The decision to update the classification does not appear to have been difficult and many feel that the U.S health officials have been acting as if a pandemic level has been around for weeks.

Fear continues to be a driving factor. Although the virus appears to be mild, there is much speculation and fear that the virus will become much more dangerous and a mutation, although unlikely, is still plauseable. A second fear is that the current state of of this virus attack is only in round 1 and a second wave may be possible in mid summer or possibly as late as August.

WHO chief Dr. Margaret Chan said “The World is moving into the early days of its first influenza pandemic in the 21st century“.

A total of 140 people have died as a direct result of the Swine flu. The seasonal flu may result 36,000 deaths in the United States and around 250,000 world wide. Recently Australia and Chile noted a large increase in symptomatic individuals. The Swine flu has spread rapidly across Europe and Japan.

A Current Gamble

A current recommendation to initiate a vaccine for the swine flu will now be taken to pharmaceutical companies. The decision to make a vaccine for swine flu may be at the expense of the regular seasonal flu. One company is typically unable to make both vaccines and therefore a gambling choice will be made.

Level 6

This is the level that caused the pandemic status to be initiated. Pandemic is classified as an epidemic of sufficient level and has become global. The last pandemic was seen in 1968 in Hong Kong.

What to expect from here?

World wide awareness will continue to rise and the number of cases may double in the next few months. Some countries may devote an increased amount of funds to prepare and protect against the Swine flu.

Travel bans are unlikely and the hope is that fear does not cause rash panic.

Some countries have seen a deluge of individuals flooding emergency rooms and health clinics. Many countries will prepare for a potential second wave.

Check out http://www.cdc.gov/H1N1FLU/

Update: June 17th 2009

Utah has had an increase in the number of deaths related to Swine Flu – and recently seen in the Salt Lake Tribune that an overall 8 individuals have died as a result. http://www.sltrib.com/news/ci_12607907

New York continues to have a high number of deaths and are currently at 23 http://www.newsday.com/news/printedition/longisland/ny-nyswin1712885390jun16,0,179533.story

Other states with deaths include: Arizona, California, Connecticut, Illinois, Michigan, Missouri, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virgina, Washington, and Wisconsin.

Originally seen at iahealth issues